Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Friday, 9 December 2016

Turkish exchange rate policy in these days: Take it easy!

I will talk a bit on Turkish economic policy which is driven by the President in 5-minute speech.
USD/TRY exchange rate has reached to 3,58 on December, 2. Four days later, Mr President decided to take control of USD/TRY through some suggestions, saying that higher USD/TRY exchange rate is a complot against Turkey.
Apart from the dependency of Central Bank and this speech, I am wondering if it is thought as our economy as closed economy and not affected by US monetary policy, or other countries' currencies which we are in relations with? 
The second thing Mr President says that banks should lower the interest rates. If interest rate is lowered, why people would keep their assets in TRY.

His speech was only on USD/TRY. What about EUR/TRY? Should people exchange their EUR assets in TRY or gold then? What about ECB monetary policy then?
Same for FED policies. How does he aim to control their monetary policies?

I think he assumed no other central banks, no trade, no other currency than USD and TRY...

Wednesday, 19 February 2014

Step backwards in Turkey

As I always say, I don't aim to write a blog about politics or law in Turkey. But as a Turkish citizen, I will be sad forever what it's happening in Turkey about new internet law. So, I needed to say or write a little bit. After that the Parliament has adopted this law, to expect a different vision from the President, it would be irrational. If we think that all the authorities (as belong to the government, in these days... Just we need to see that these laws, these approvals, are such that step backwards. While they have already started with Turkish press (where we couldn't/can't see anything that the government didn't want/doesn't want). Now, they interfere in all our rights of information access. Just as a open letter to the all web browsers and to the all search engines... Help!!!

Thursday, 30 January 2014

money policy decisions at midnight

The situation in Turkey from December, 17 was continuing, with especially EUR/TRY and USD/TRY rates, (recorded highest rates as... 3.203 and 2.3335)
Then, Central Bank of Turkey decided to intervene as for controlling this high leakage of Turkish Lira.
Today I mean at midnight, they have announced that the interest rates and one week repo rate  in the interbank market and BIST Repo Repurchase-Reverse Repurchase Agreement markets, have been increased as: 

  • Overnight Interest Rates: Marginal Funding Rate from 7.75% to 12%, borrowing rate from 3.5% to 8%, and the interest rate on borrowing facilities provided for primary dealers via repo transactions from 6.75% to 11.5%.
  • One-week repo rate, from 4.5% to 10%.
  • Late Liquidity Window Interest Rates (between 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.): Borrowing rate is kept at 0%, lending rate, from 10.25% to 15%.

With these these announcements, EUR/TRY and USD/TRY rates followed a downtrend during the day. But, in the medium run, surely, a high inflation rate problem can be arisen.
On the other hand, tonight The US Federal Reserve reduced its monthly asset purchases by $10bn - as expected. But this reduction in the monetary expansion of USA, even it has been expected, in Turkey, can cause the expectations about increasing of USD/TRY rate. In the medium run, I think that Central Bank's interest rates decisions will be less effective on USD/TRY rate than EUR/TRY rate.

Monday, 6 January 2014

some corruption in these days

In these days, in Turkey... having a government which is on the news with some corruptions and bribery scandals. Actually, all Turkish people need more explications about this scandal, especially from prime minister. But, on the contrary, instead of making a detailed declaration, he defends his ministers and deputies.
We can just see meanwhile, how doesn't it work our law system... as the recent lawsuits (e.g Balyoz, Ergenekon)... But, these recent lawsuits won't be this post's topic.
How doesn't it work our law system, while the government can change all constitutional provision as they wish and while all prosecutors are accredited by the government as they wish...
We can see at the same time, how doesn't the government reach to the targets for exchanges rates.
As of the last friday of 2013, EUR/TL was 2.97 and USD/TL was 2.15, BIST 100 index was 63.885.
Also, we could see two kinds of TV channel, just as during the Gezi Park protests. Because, people protested this corruption and bribery scandal on the streets, in Istanbul, Ankara etc. Most TV channels do not show anything, while these protests are broadcast live by 2 or 3 TV channels.
At the same time, while the prime minister declares to the people which acclaim him at the airport, that the nation will decide at the elections whether these ministers and deputies are guilty or not. That means that if Turkish people vote for this political party, he can say then these ministers and deputies are innocent. However, it is clear that it's only the judicial authority which can decide.
Where the most powerful side of them is  "economic stability" according to them, it is not possible to see an economic stability situation with these figures of exchange rates and stock exchange indices. For foreign and domestic investors, Turkey  is on the way to not be a secure place. Happy new year and goodbye hot money...